More "Lost" in Thoughts...
Ok, so it's established by Naomi and Cooper that some plane was found four miles deep in the ocean off of Bali. The world now believes it was Oceanic Flight 815, and that all the passengers and crew are dead.
Ok, disregarding Cooper's assertion that they're all in hell (including him - well, he probably actually is, now) let's figure out the mostly likely explanation what happened.
1) We can reasonably surmise that the "Others" were not expecting the plane to appear in the sky over their island, but were prepared for the eventuality.
2) Desmond's failure to enter the numbers in time in the Hatch caused the electromagnetic pulse that caught 815 and crashed it.
2a) Did the pulse also pull it off course in the first place? According to the pilot (the crewman and the Episode title), "Six hours in, our radio went out; no one could see us. We turned back to land in Fiji. By the time we hit turbulence, we were a thousand miles off course. They're looking for us in the wrong place." Which did the pulse cause - the radio to go out, or the turbulance? Or the actual break-up of the plane? In other words, did the pulse cause all three things to happen in sequence, or was it one of several forces at work to divert the plane?
3) Regardless of the how, Flight 815 crashes on Lostopia Island. The tail section breaks off and lands mostly in the water off the northern coast. The nose section breaks off and lands some distance inland in the trees. The middle section, plus some of the wing and engine sections that are still attached, land on the beach and some parts are eventually swept back out to sea.
4) Therefore, ignoring the possibility of such sci-fi concepts as twinning (dual Will Rikers or John Crichtons) and alternate universes, someone placed a replica of Flight 815 at the bottom of the ocean off the coast of Bali. It had to have been done fairly quickly, since once rescue efforts got started in earnest the possibility of doing so unnoticed grows vanishingly small. Therefore someone or group of someones had to have access to another, unused Boeing 777 that would not be missed, transport it toward Bali and sink it in a 4-mile trench before any search & rescue teams could get to that area and search it before they got there. Did whoever placed the fake plane and people know beforehand that the real 815 was destined to crash on the island? Did they have a hand in bringing that about? How could they have planned for that exact eventuality when Desmond's failing to push the button happened to occur at that exact moment? This would explain a lot about how the Losties' pasts are so connected to each other. More on that in a later post.
5) Allowing that the plane was somehow transported there, how to account for the bodies? According to parachutist Naomi, "Submersible robots explored the wreckage with cameras, which showed that all of the bodies were there." Whether they actually were able to capture video of 324 bodies inside at outside the fuselage is unknown, but if that's so the people who placed this replica would have had to actually kill 324 more people of relative size, shape, gender and race of the Losties. That fact is actually debatable, since the depth of the plane would make rescue efforts almost impossible so positive identification of any of the bodies would be unlikely. Still. 324 people.
6) So who did it? Ben, after witnessing the crash, takes Juliet to visit Mikhail at The Flame Station. Mikhail is monitoring global news coverage of the disappearance of the flight, and Ben tells him to find out everything he can about the passengers.
Did Ben, and Mikhail, also have a hand in or knowledge of the plan to create a decoy Flight 815? Juliet's recruiter Richard (the GQ guy that gave Sawyer's file to Locke) was at that time in the outside world keeping an eye on Juliet's sister, Rachel so they did have some human contacts off the island at that time. Were they at that time in contact with an outside agency, all working together to further whatever plan the Others have going?
I think there are two main possibilities at this point (some I've postulated about before have been eliminated). Sun's father and Paik Industries, and Desmond's girl Penelope's father and Widmore Corporation. If either are involved, do they work together? Separate? At all? Were either in touch with the Others, before the second pulse that Locke caused that cut off outside communication? Or is it the ever-evasive Hanso Foundation, the force behind the Dharma Initiative? Are Hanso and Dharma still actively interested in what happens on the island, and completely informed? Somebody out there is the mysterious "Jacob" Ben and other Others (heh) keep mentioning. "Jacob" is the brains behind everything, a "great man" and to me he's either Charles Widmore, Alvar Hanso, Mr. Paik, or Christian Shephard (Jack's supposedly dead father). Anthony Cooper has obviously been eliminated.
7) So to sum up: The real Flight 815 crashed on the island. Some agency set up a fake crash site just inaccessible enough to satisfy searchers but unable to be disproven. Said agency has some connection to the goings on on the island, and may or may not have been in collusion with the Others.
That's my story and I'm sticking with it.
I have another idea on a related subject I'll get to later today...